Specialize In Trading US Dollar (Part I)
If you are a currency trader and focus on the four major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY, then you should consider yourself a specialist in USD. Yes, its true! You are a specialist in trading the greenback.
Each currency pair actually is a combination of two currencies. So if you are short in GBP/USD then you are in fact selling the GBP and buying the USD. In each of the four major currency pairs, USD is part of each currency pair.
This means that you should study and understand the fundamentals of US Dollar, the US economy and the workings of the Federal Reserve System (FED). Then you have done your homework needed to trade any one of the four major currency pairs as all of them depend on USD.
These four major currency pairs are the most liquid pairs in the forex markets. They involve the vast majority of the currency trading. You should think like this. Majors are the most heavily traded pairs and US Dollar is half of each major pair. So if you can understand what drives the USD, it will have a huge impact on your trading plans.
What do you think; USD will weaken or strengthen in the near and medium term. The only thing you need to determine is your bias for USD before each trade. Off course develop a system that guides you in forming an educated bias. Then apply that bias to the major currency pairs.
Just a small reminder, when you buy a currency pair, you are buying the first currency and selling the second currency in the pair. Suppose, your bias is that USD is going to strengthen. You can go long on USD/CHF and USD/JPY. You can go short on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
One bias, four trades! But each currency pair will react differently to USD. For example, if Euro is also strengthening. The currency pair EUR/USD will move less with USD also strengthening as compared to USD/JPY if JPY is weakening.
Lets say you can only afford to trade one standard lot. You have a bearish bias for USD. You can consider going long on either GBP/USD or EUR/USD. What pair you should trade? Which one!
Take a look at GBP and the Euro both at the same time. Find out which of the two currencies is stronger right now. You should trade the stronger currency. You can find that by taking a look at the cross EUR/GBP. If the EUR/GBP cross is down, it means EUR is weakening and GBP is getting stronger. You should trade GBP/USD!
Always include an evaluation of the currency correlations for the major pairs in every trading plan that you make. The correlations between the currency pairs can change any time. So you need to calculate the correlations on weekly basis at least to give you a fair idea. Correlation is determined by what is known as the correlation coefficient which always ranges between +1 and -1. - 23229
Each currency pair actually is a combination of two currencies. So if you are short in GBP/USD then you are in fact selling the GBP and buying the USD. In each of the four major currency pairs, USD is part of each currency pair.
This means that you should study and understand the fundamentals of US Dollar, the US economy and the workings of the Federal Reserve System (FED). Then you have done your homework needed to trade any one of the four major currency pairs as all of them depend on USD.
These four major currency pairs are the most liquid pairs in the forex markets. They involve the vast majority of the currency trading. You should think like this. Majors are the most heavily traded pairs and US Dollar is half of each major pair. So if you can understand what drives the USD, it will have a huge impact on your trading plans.
What do you think; USD will weaken or strengthen in the near and medium term. The only thing you need to determine is your bias for USD before each trade. Off course develop a system that guides you in forming an educated bias. Then apply that bias to the major currency pairs.
Just a small reminder, when you buy a currency pair, you are buying the first currency and selling the second currency in the pair. Suppose, your bias is that USD is going to strengthen. You can go long on USD/CHF and USD/JPY. You can go short on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
One bias, four trades! But each currency pair will react differently to USD. For example, if Euro is also strengthening. The currency pair EUR/USD will move less with USD also strengthening as compared to USD/JPY if JPY is weakening.
Lets say you can only afford to trade one standard lot. You have a bearish bias for USD. You can consider going long on either GBP/USD or EUR/USD. What pair you should trade? Which one!
Take a look at GBP and the Euro both at the same time. Find out which of the two currencies is stronger right now. You should trade the stronger currency. You can find that by taking a look at the cross EUR/GBP. If the EUR/GBP cross is down, it means EUR is weakening and GBP is getting stronger. You should trade GBP/USD!
Always include an evaluation of the currency correlations for the major pairs in every trading plan that you make. The correlations between the currency pairs can change any time. So you need to calculate the correlations on weekly basis at least to give you a fair idea. Correlation is determined by what is known as the correlation coefficient which always ranges between +1 and -1. - 23229
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Discover A Revolutionary New Forex Robot. Develop your own Forex Trading System.
posted by X - Men @ 1:34 AM
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